921
FXUS65 KBOI 030018
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
518 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITING EAST THIS EVENING,
THEN CLEARING AND COOLER, EXCEPT PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND SPRING-LIKE TUESDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
3500-4500FT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000FT.
- WINDY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER AND SHOWERY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 513 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
MVFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT,
FROM KBNO-KONO-KJER AND SOUTHWARD. POCKETS OF STRATUS/FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR KMYL AND WEISER BASIN. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15
KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: N-NE 5-15 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE 5-10 KT AFTER TUE/12Z.
KBOI...VFR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. MVFR-IFR MIST/FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER
TUE/06Z. THEN, LIFR CHANCES INCREASE TO 50% AFTER TUE/09Z.
CURRENT TAF INCLUDES IFR CONDITIONS, BUT MAY BE UPDATED TO
INCLUDE LIFR ONCE CONFIDENCE GROWS. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 212 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
CURRENT SYSTEM HAS PROVED EVEN WEAKER THAN MODELS PREDICTED WITH
LESS PCPN AND ONLY LIGHT WINDS. AT 2 PM MST THE WETTEST AREA
WAS NEAR THE ID/UT BORDER, WELL EAST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHEAST OR. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WE NOTE THAT A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO SO WE ARE CONTINUING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NEAR GLENNS FERRY
UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TODAY'S LIGHT RAIN WILL LEAVE THE LOWER
LEVELS MOIST, FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPS ARE COOLEST. LATER TUESDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL COME INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND RAISE TEMPS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S THROUGH 50S
ELSEWHERE, NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONGER, COLDER, AND WETTER THAT THE CURRENT ONE. TOTAL
PCPN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE .25 TO .50 INCH, WITH
SNOW LEVEL STAYING ABOVE 6000 FEET UNTIL NEAR THE END OF PCPN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 212 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
HIGH ELEVATION AREAS. GUSTS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH 30 TO 45 MPH
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS. TEMPS COOL DOWN TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS SAME TIME, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
LEADING TO A 40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY REACH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAME AREAS AS THURSDAY, BUT OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE REDUCED
TO 5 TO 15 MPH. MINIMAL MOUNTAIN SNOW OR VALLEY RAIN ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE DURATION OF THIS MILDER WEATHER.
SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG
\TERM,ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
PACIFIC HIGH. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST,
INCLUDING OUR AREA. CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
IN NORTHERN AREAS, BUT RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS HAVE CARRIED THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH AND MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST THE LONG
TERM FORECAST CONTINUE TO CARRY IT SOUTH. A COLDER AND WETTER
START TO NEXT WEEK SEEMS LIKELY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
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