652
FXUS65 KBOI 031003
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.
- GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S TO 50S
ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MORE
TYPICAL FOR MID-APRIL.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING BRIEF BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE EVENT BEFORE DROPPING
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LONG VALLEY, WITH AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET SEEING
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHTNING TO ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY (70 PERCENT) BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
CAMAS PRAIRIE, AND THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, SETTLING AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
DOWN COME FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN (BETWEEN BOISE AND MOUNTAIN HOME). IN THIS
AREA, THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH
COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS TERRAIN AS THE TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA. A WARMING TREND
WILL SET IN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SETS UP NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (20-40%) ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES DUE TO THE POLAR JET SETTING UP JUST TO OUR
NORTH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITHIN THE PERIOD,
WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT
MAKING IT'S WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, WITH MOISTURE BEING DIRECTED
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY/TUESDAY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE
COOLING TO AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL COME TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 1027 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING IN LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST IMPACT AREAS INCLUDE KJER/KGNG AND KEUL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER TUE/16Z. SURFACE WINDS: BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT SW 10-15 KT FOR MAGIC
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: N-NE 5-15 KT, BECOMING
VARIABLE 5-10 KT AFTER TUE/12Z.
KBOI...LOW VFR/MVFR DUE TO MIST EXPECTED AFTER TUE/08Z.
CURRENTLY A 40% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR BETWEEN TUE/11Z-15Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIGHT SE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER TUE/16Z. SURFACE
WINDS: NW AROUND 5 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THEN, SE 5-15 KT AFTER TUE/16Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....SH
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