025
FXUS65 KBOI 211215
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
615 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
- WARM, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 334 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO CENTRAL OREGON, WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER OUR
REGION THIS MORNING AS OF 3AM MDT. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM,
WITH TWIN FALLS SITTING AT 60F. THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEGRADE OVER OUR REGION TODAY, THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER TREASURE-MAGIC
VALLEY AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE STAYS TO OUR NORTH, WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER
COUNTY-VALLEY COUNTY SEEING A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL, WITH ONLY
HIGH SUMMITS SEEING SNOWFLAKES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL, BUT ABOUT 10-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BE ESPECIALLY DIFFERENT, WITH LOWS REACHING NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE COOL ZONAL FLOW
MORE TO OUR NORTH THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MODELED. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 334 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXTENDING FROM A LOW OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION
INTO OUR REGION, BUT IT WILL COMPETE WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DISAGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE AR COMPARED TO THE
RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER
COUNTY AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
7000-8000 FEET. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE FLUCTUATED SIGNIFICANTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH BETTER AGREEMENT IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A REBUILDING RIDGE. A FEW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SHOW A LOW BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUE WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 611 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW-SE AFTER SAT/14Z,
BRINGING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KBKE/KMYL. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NEAR KBKE-KMYL IN
LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT UNTIL SAT/18Z, THEN
W-NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 KT, EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN
MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: W-SW 20-40 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: SE OR VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. BECOMING
W-NW 8-15 KT AFTER SAT/16Z WITH COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 18-25 KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS: NW OR VARIABLE 5-15 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
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