928
FXUS65 KBOI 232012
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
212 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
- GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S.
A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. THESE GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS COMBINED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE OREGON- NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FROM ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL TO 4000-5000
FEET MSL BY THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BRING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PRIMARY STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE REBUILDING OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE
WILL INITIATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING THURSDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE TYPICAL FOUR-CORNERS
RIDGE SEEN IN THE SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
US THOUGH AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AT THE MOMENT THOUGH, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1210 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING NEAR KMYL. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 12
KT, EXCEPT W-SW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE NV
BORDER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT: W-SW 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: NW 4-9 KT, BECOMING SE 3-7 KT TONIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....ST
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