821
FXUS65 KBOI 280911
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
311 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, WITH AREAS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
-COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER VALLEYS AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
-GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER VALLEYS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN INTO A ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME ELEVATED WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OR AND THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL
MOSTLY STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. BY LATE SUNDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AND A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL OR AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY. AS SUCH, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
IS LIKELY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
SNOW LEVELS BACK UP INTO THE 5-7KFT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN WILL BRING IN A 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, QPFS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE STAYING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
GENERALLY UNDER 0.10".
THE GREATEST HIGHLIGHT OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON
A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA STEERING INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, WITH PEAK PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (50-90%)
OCCURRING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VALLEYS WILL
SEE SHOWERY RAIN AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM THE COLD AIR ALOFT
BROUGHT ABOUT BY THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS BY EARLY FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LATE-SEASON SNOWFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 1147 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 12 KT
OR LESS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SW-NW 5-15 KT SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS
20-30 KT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: SW 15-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: SE UP TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW
4-8 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KT
SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. LOWER
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, OTHERWISE GENERALLY SW-NW
5-15 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....ST
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