625
FXUS65 KBOI 282004
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
204 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, WITH AREAS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
-COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLING TREND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER VALLEYS AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
-GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER VALLEYS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
SUNDAY, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 70S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS ON THE HORIZON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES
INLAND.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST OREGON
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PUSHING THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY BY
MIDDAY AND EXITING INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH MONDAY
HIGHS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY FOR WESTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION
TO THE COOLING, EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FLOORS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SHORT-TERM,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (25-60%, HIGHEST SOUTH) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE, AND THEN AHEAD OF THE LARGER GULF OF ALASKA
LOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR NORMAL COME TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY (IF NOT LEANING ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY). ANOTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WILL BE SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 5-7.5KFT MSL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OVER THE COURSE OF EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, QPF TOTALS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE SNAKE BASIN WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.25
INCHES (ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ON
HIGHER PEAKS).
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH ON A GULF OF ALASKA LOW
IMPACTING OUR AREA COME MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, REACHING 60- 95% BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AND TAKE ON MORE OF A
SHOWERY NATURE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
HAVE A 75+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.75 INCHES OF
LIQUID. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF LIQUID ARE
LIKELY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL, WITH SNOW LEVELS FOLLOWING THE TREND LOWERING TO 2.5-4
KFT MSL THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN LATE SEASON SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 4.5 KFT MSL COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK (50-70% CHANCE), ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6KFT MSL HAVE A 60-80% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 8
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.
COME THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WITH A WARMING TREND
AS THE TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 1141 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS:
BECOMING W-NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE SNAKE BASIN, BECOMING VARIABLE UP
TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT, NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THEN VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CEILINGS. LOWER CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY OBSCURE MOUNTAINS
WITH SNOW LEVELS 7-8KFT MSL. BREEZY SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35
KT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, OTHERWISE SW-NW 5-15
KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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