851
FXUS65 KBOI 141753
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1153 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER TODAY WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO
VALLEY FLOORS BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
- SUBFREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA TODAY, BRINGING DRIER WEATHER WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD MORE
RAIN (SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL NORTH TO 6500 FEET SOUTH) INTO
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH EASTERN OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND WESTERN ID
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER AIR THAN
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MOST MODELS SHOW PCPN ENDING BY THEN. GFS,
HOWEVER, HAS A BAND OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH OUR CWA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE AIR IS
EASILY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. FOR NOW WE'LL STAY WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS, BUT WE REMAIN READY FOR ANY MODEL CHANGES IN THE NEXT
TWO CYCLES. FOR NOW, WE CAN OFFER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF-
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY. THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY, DRIER, AND COLD, AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEARING AND
CALMING AND QUITE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, COLD
ENOUGH TO DAMAGE NEW PLANTS UNLESS THEY ARE COVERED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 311 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
FRIDAY WILL MARK THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO END
THE WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXITS TO THE
EAST, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COME FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THURSDAY. THE DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT VALLEY
LOWS TO BE AT OR NEAR FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A 15-50%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEY COUNTY FRIDAY (HIGHEST IN NORTHEASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY), ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
USUAL WINDY AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 MPH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES LEANING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON ANOTHER LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH TIMING CONTINUES
TO BE UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. WITH THAT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, REACHING 30-60%
AREA-WIDE COME MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXACT TIMING, AND THEREFORE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BE NEAR NORMAL WHEN IT IMPACTS OUR
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY, FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AND NORTH/NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 1152 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR TODAY. BAND OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM WEST. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FROM W-E EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS/LOW CEILINGS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 5-6.5 KFT MSL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
NEAR KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-NW 10-20 KT
KBOI...VFR. RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SE 5-10KT THIS EVENING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
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