112
FXUS65 KBOI 161131
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
531 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND COLD TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVEL ON VALLEY FLOORS.
- AREAS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE AGRICULTURAL VALLEYS
THIS MORNING, BUT WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- STEADILY WARMING DAYS BUT ONLY GRADUALLY WARMING NIGHTS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 314 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
AT 2 AM MDT THE COLD FRONT AND NEARLY ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW
EXTENDED FROM NEAR TWIN FALLS THROUGH OWYHEE COUNTY INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. SNOW LEVELS
HAVE LOWERED TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM
IN OUR CWA LATER TODAY WILL BE SNOW OR GRAUPEL, ALTHOUGH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BLOW 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM MDT WERE STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
AGRICULTURAL VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO, AND SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY, BUT DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM MDT.
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
MORE IMPACTFUL, WITH LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 23 TO 28
DEGREES EVERYWHERE, I.E., A HARD FREEZE. EVEN SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, BUT NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPS WILL MODERATE ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT HIGH
TEMPS, ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY, WILL WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES
PER DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, GETTING BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REPLACES TODAY'S COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 314 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FORM OF A CLOSED-OFF
LOW IN THE 500MB PATTERN COME MONDAY. THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD A MID-WEEK ARRIVAL (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY);
HOWEVER, IT COULD ARRIVE IN EASTERN OREGON AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN E-OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TO 30-60% AREA-WIDE COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
IS THE TIME FRAME THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS. THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND, WITH ENSEMBLES HINTING AT BUILDING INSTABILITY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE DAY OF GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE PATTERN PROGRESSION BEYOND WEDNESDAY, BUT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AREA-WIDE COME THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL FOLLOWING THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 531 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING NEAR KTWF/KJER/KMYL THIS MORNING,
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS BECOMING
SCATTERED AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON, BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE VFR. SNOW LEVELS: AT VALLEY FLOORS. SURFACE WINDS:
W-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: W-NW 15-35 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
30% CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS: W-NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY. S-SE SURFACE WINDS OF 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KT SAT/SUN AFTERNOON, STRONGEST SUNDAY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE UP TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT SAT/SUN NIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
IDZ012-014-016.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ014-016.
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
MDT /9 AM PDT/ FRIDAY FOR ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
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