290
FXUS65 KBOI 031122
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
522 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, MOSTLY ALONG THE NV BORDER AND ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO.
- WINDY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE SNAKE BASIN IN IDAHO,
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 343 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HAVE SEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE TRACK OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR
EAST. INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NV
BORDER TODAY. SAW SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY
AND THE W-CENTRAL ID MTNS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE
THE SAME AGAIN TODAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO 15-20% IN THESE AREAS, AND EXTENDED IT INTO FAR NORTHERN
HARNEY COUNTY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MOSTLY LIKELY THREAT
FROM SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY, WITH SPEEDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY
WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. TOGETHER, THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO 30-40% ALONG THE NV BORDER AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
BOISE MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. NORTHERLY
FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF
25-40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS SE OREGON AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A LINGERING SHOWER/STORM THREAT ON TUESDAY
IS FOCUSED OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING CLOSED LOW AND IS COVERED WITH 15-30% PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WINDS WILL RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE
25-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN. THESE WINDS COULD KICK UP
DUST, ESPECIALLY OVER DRIER PORTIONS OF SE OREGON. TEMPERATURES
ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY, COOLING 3-8
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 343 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ENABLE WARM TEMPERATURES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OF VARYING INTENSITY (SHOWN WELL IN CLUSTER ANALYSIS)
WILL BRING CLOUDIER SKIES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES 10-25% IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT, ANOTHER QUITE POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 520 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR. PATCHY VALLEY SMOKE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SE OR AND HIGH TERRAIN IN SW ID. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST ARE LIKELY NEAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT THROUGH
MORNING, THEN NW-NE 7-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL: VARIABLE 5-10 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-10 KT THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
THEN NW 7-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CH
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