316
FXUS65 KBOI 240816
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
216 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) WITH TEMPERATURES10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED LATE DAY/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OREGON.
- MUCH COOLER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LATEST MODELS STILL SHOW MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES IN AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA 50N/152W. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD, NOW FORECAST ON THE NORTHERN OR
COAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SSE-WARD THROUGH OREGON TUESDAY, TO NW
NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD THEREFORE
BE SLOWER TO PASS THROUGH OUR CWA, NOW ESTIMATED THROUGH SE
OREGON MONDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WILL BE
INCREASINGLY WINDY, WITH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. PRE-
FRONTAL WIND AND LOW-HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN SE
OREGON, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL
AVERAGE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE CHANGED SINCE LAST NIGHT.
LAST NIGHT'S MODELS TOOK THE LOW ACROSS NV WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND INTO COLORADO FRIDAY. TODAY'S MODELS KEEP THE LOW
STATIONARY IN NW NV THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INTO SOUTHERN ID
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. THIS CHANGE
KEEPS OUR CWA RELATIVELY COOL AND SHOWERY ALL WEEK INSTEAD OF
WARMING AND DRYING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 1133 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VIRGA/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEAR THE ID-NV BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW GUSTS TO
35-45 KT AND BLOWING DUST. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT,
THEN SW- NW 5-15 KT AFTER SUN/16Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: W-SW
10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: SE OR VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT, THEN NW-N
5-10 KT AFTER SUN/15Z. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....SH
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