369
FXUS65 KBOI 242024
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
224 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- GUSTY WINDS ON MEMORIAL DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.
- MUCH COOLER WITH MODERATE WIND AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RHS 10-30%. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, WHICH
WARMS UP JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT NIGHT. THE
ALIGNMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OREGON, AND 25-30 MPH ACROSS SW IDAHO. WINDS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE AREA, LIMITING VISIBILITY AND
REDUCING AIR QUALITY. TODAY AND TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY AS THE
OVERALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWS OVER THE REGION. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ALLOW MORNING RHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR SATURATION IN
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-70% ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING, GENERALLY INCREASING WITH ELEVATION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONTINUED STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WILL BE CUT-OFF TO
THE SOUTH OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRAW THE LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO
AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE PERFECT
CONDITIONS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT EACH DAY AND EVEN OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR LOWER VALLEYS,
WITH 0.75-1 INCHES FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF CENTRAL IDAHO. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE IS
35-45% FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS, AND THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR
MORE FOR THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS IS 50-60%. NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 1124 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-04Z NEAR
TWF/JER. AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS OVER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WNW 6-12 KT WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT WNW 20-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. INCREASING WINDS
LATE MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WNW 6-10 KT, BECOMING ESE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER 04Z.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, MINIMUM RHS
10-15%, AND GUSTY WINDS 30-45 MPH HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THAT
NIGHT, WILL BRING GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WITHIN THE ALREADY
WARM AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. MORNING MAXIMUM RHS CONSISTENTLY
RECOVER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A
30-40% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN EACH DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
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