978
FXUS65 KBOI 270938
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
338 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, BLOWING
DUST, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL
IDAHO.
- BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND IDAHO SOUTH OF BOISE.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH AND BLOWING
DUST, HEAVY RAIN, AND HAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BRINGS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. TODAY, STRONG SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, DRY LOW LEVELS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL ADD TO WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH, BLOWING DUST, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%)
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO NORTH AND
WEST OF BOISE, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO, LOWEST IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH LOWER
VALLEYS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF BOISE WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH. ON FRIDAY, THE
UPPER LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY 5-10 DEGREES,
AND WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AS
PREVIOUS DAYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, AS THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN
STAGNANT OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY LIFTS OVER OUR AREA. THE
BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA, ALTHOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) SEE
SHOWERS WITH IT. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS COME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE COME SUNDAY, MAINLY
OWING TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE EXITING LOW. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW IDAHO. AS HAS BEEN THE
COMMON TREND THIS PAST STRETCH OF WEATHER, AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND WILL SET IN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD, REACHING NEAR NORMAL COME SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COME WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1135 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TOWARD THE
NW BY EARLY AM. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KBNO-KBKE-KMYL THROUGH MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WED PM. STORMS CAPABLE OF OUTFLOWS TO 30-50
KT, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCED VIS. SURFACE
WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW-NE 10-20 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE 5-15 KT
EARLY MORNING. THEN, NE-SE 10-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-40 KT BEGINNING
LATE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: E-SE 20-35 KT.
KBOI...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VICINITY ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING.
A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY WED/20Z-THU/00Z. STORMS IN AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30-45 KT, ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 3-8 KT THROUGH WED AM, THEN NW 5-10 KT EARLY
WED AFTERNOON. TRANSITIONING TO S-SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
LATE AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....SH
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