124
FXUS65 KBOI 150904
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
304 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.
- THE HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY WILL REACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, PUSHING LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 90S.
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME, WHERE GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DRIVE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS OUR GRASSY AND SHRUBBY
FUEL TYPES.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRAG A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BY 5
TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN ONGOING VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
CARRY THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM TUESDAY STRAIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REAMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB RIGHT BACK TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND HEATING PEAK ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF
TUESDAY'S HOT CONDITIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
DEEPER, MORE ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL ALSO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EXPANDING
EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PRECEDING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, LIGHTNING STRIKING DRY FUELS COULD CREATE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER SETUP. BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1157 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, THEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W-NW 5-15 KT BY MID-MORNING.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT BECOMING NW 6-10
KT BY THE LATE MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
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