789
FXUS65 KBOI 161754
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1154 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.
- THE HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 309 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL GENERATE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.. AT THE SAME TIME, A VERY DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. DESPITE THE WEAKENED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TODAY WHICH IS ABOUT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. SLIGHT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THOUGH THEY WILL STILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS BRIEF RIDING
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 309 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
POTENT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND WESTERN IDAHO STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE INVERTED-V PROFILES, A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO A WETTER STORM
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTEN. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
DROP THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY, LEAVING A COOL
AND UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN BY NEXT MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 1139 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT GUSTING
25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DECREASING TO W-NW 5-15 KT
AFTER 17/06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS: NW 10-20 KT. GUSTS NW 25-30 KT AFTER 17/00Z, THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 17/06Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....TL
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
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