937
FXUS65 KBOI 162349
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
549 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT THE WEEK.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 235 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WE REMAIN IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY'S HEAT
WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A MINOR WAVES KNOCKS BACK
THE UPPER RIDGE. WINDS WILL COME DOWN FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S
GUSTS, BUT REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS THEY FEED INTO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, OR BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO 90 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOUGH COOLER, VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING TO DRIVE GUSTY WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE BOTTLED UP ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION AS THE UPPER FLOW PICKS UP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND FORETELL A PATTERN CHANGE TO
END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 235 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ON SHORE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-50%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN LOWER
VALLEYS FRIDAY AND THEN TREND DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH BEGINS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO SATURDAY. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 549 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES ACROSS
THE AREA UNTIL MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT
GUSTING 25-30 KT THIS EVENING, DECREASING TO W-NW 5-15 KT AFTER
17/06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE UNTIL MID EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS: NW 10-20 KT. GUSTS NW 25-30 KT AFTER 17/00Z, THEN
DIMINISHING AFTER 17/06Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ424-426.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ424-
426.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....TL
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