653
FXUS65 KBOI 242010
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
210 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TODAY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
CORE LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY, STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM. ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN EARLY THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY AS A
POTENT COLD CORE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST, DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVELS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE, BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A 60% CHANCE FOR THE VALLEYS TO PICK UP OVER A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, WHILE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO
COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON THOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS
PW VALUES PEAK TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL DROP SHARPLY, LANDING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS, MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH AREA- WIDE TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 1.25 INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN EASTERN OR, WHERE
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH EXPECTED. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 6500-8000 FT MSL RANGE BY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOWFALL
REMAINS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 7500 FT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MOSTLY DRY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY CONTINUING A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1158 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR WITH SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM HEAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN OR AND SOUTHWEST ID NEAR THE NV
BORDER. THUNDER CAPABLE OF ERRATIC OUTFLOWS TO 40 KT. SURFACE
WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS UP TO 30KT NEAR KONO
AND KBKE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W-SW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM HEAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10-15%) OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT FROM AROUND 20Z TO THU/02Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY
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