595
FXUS65 KBOI 260853
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
253 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY AS A COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE LOW LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE, AND
PRECIPITATION IS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH EASTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS MORNING, AND WILL SERVE AS AN
INITIAL FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BEGINNING MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30-35 MPH. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS THIS EVENING WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORM ACTIVITY CLOSELY.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER IDAHO THIS WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO LOWER 60S IN THE WARMEST
SPOTS, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6500-7000 FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PLACE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT A BROAD-SCALE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, WITH ONLY A
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH NORMAL BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THE THROUGH IN
PLACE, IT STANDS TO REASON THAT ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 1120 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS. VIRGA AND SHOWERS TONIGHT, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRI/AM. WIDELY SCATTERS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRI/PM. STORMS CAPABLE OF OUTFLOWS TO 30-45 KT, SMALL HAIL, AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/THUNDER, ESP OVER MTNS.
MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW 10-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-35 KT FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN
VIRGA/SHOWERS. THEN VARIABLE 5-15 KT FRI/PM. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: VARIABLE 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. VIRGA AND VICINITY SHOWERS TONIGHT, THEN FREQUENT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN AROUND FRI/13Z. INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES (30%)
FRI/PM. THUNDER CAPABLE OF OUTFLOWS TO 30-45 KT, SMALL HAIL,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW-N
10-20 KT, GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH VIRGA/SHOWERS/COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. THEN VARIABLE UNDER 8 KT FRI/PM.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW, ESP OVER MTNS.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS TEMPORARILY LOWERING TO 6500-7500FT
MSL SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
IDZ400-420-423-424-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TODAY TO 6 AM MDT
/5 AM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR ORZ670>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....NF
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