008
FXUS65 KBOI 262013
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
213 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING
OF SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE HEATING
FOR MODEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPE OF 50 TO 200 J/KG) AND THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS. HOWEVER, AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, THIS SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, STORMS WILL BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. THE BEST
DYNAMICS, MOISTURE POOLING, AND OVERALL CHANCE FOR STORMS AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR ROCK SLIDES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY NEAR LEGACY BURN SCARS, LIKE THE
WAPITI FIRE BURN SCAR AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BAKER
COUNTY AND ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN OREGON, WHERE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS
FORECAST, WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. ABOVE 6500 FEET COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES
OF WET SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BOTH DAYS. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND UPPER
LOW MOVES AWAY INTO CENTRAL CANADA, BUT LEAVES BEHIND WEAK RESIDUAL
TROUGHING FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE BC COAST. THIS SECOND LOW IS NOT AS COLD AS THE
CURRENT LOW AND MODELS ARE NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ABOUT WHERE IT WILL
GO, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY IS LOW. FOR NOW WE'RE
GOING WITH THE WARMER ECMWF FORECAST WHICH TAKES THE LOW INLAND
ACROSS BC AND ALBERTA, AND KEEPS OUR CWA GENERALLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WE ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD BRING THE LOW ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 1144 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026 VFR.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. FROM 26/21Z UNTIL 27/04Z SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. AFTER
27/04Z WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN, MOUNTAINS GENERALLY OBSCURED, AND
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: UNTIL 27/04Z NW 10-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT, THEN DECREASING TO 5-10 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W 20KT.
KBOI...VFR. RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 26/21Z TO 27/04Z.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE, NW WIND 10-15KT
UNTIL 27/04Z, THEN NW 5-10KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. LOCAL MVFR/IFR OVER MOUNTAINS IN
HEAVY RAIN/SNOW. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 6500-7500FT MSL SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ400-420-423-
424-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ SATURDAY FOR
ORZ670>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page