746
FXUS65 KBOI 052051
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY BECOMING VERY
HOT NEXT WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH KICKING OUT OF CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS SE OREGON. THE DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL SPEEDS TO 50 MPH. NOT EXPECTING
THESE TO BE LONG REACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IMPACTING SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS INTO IDAHO OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
ALOFT, HAVE WRAPPED THE SNAKE PLAIN INTO THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON INITIATION OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL DIRECT ACTIVITY INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN,
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MAINTAINING
ACTIVITY. INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY, CUTTING OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SE
OREGON, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WESTERLY FLOW SHUNTS THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE IS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED.
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE
EXPANDS OVER UTAH ON FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE 95TH
PERCENTILE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY
BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 1203 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MAINLY VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OR AND ID MOVING
NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT, WITH GUSTS 15-25
KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
S-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS, A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE
TO HEAT. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KT FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ670>672.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA
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