555
FXUS65 KBOI 061750
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN
HAZARD AND A LOWER CHANCE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 359 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE CENTER OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH
EASTERN OREGON TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING VIRGA, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, TO OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST- CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN UPON REACHING
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE, BUT OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES AND BRING
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS 40-60 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY. A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO SEND OUTFLOW
GUSTS THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON TUESDAY, INCREASING 4-8 DEGREES FROM TODAY UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST, LIMITING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 20-35
MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 359 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 20-35
MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST
TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S, BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT
OF THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST WOULD PUSH LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER 100
DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY WINDS UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY, MONSOON MOISTURE MAY START TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA. THIS WOULD REINTRODUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, LIKELY CONTINUING BEYOND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOWS TO 25-45 KT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS: W-NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: S-SW 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. DISTANT SHOWERS AND CBS OVER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOWS OF 25-35 KT MAY TRAVEL TO TERMINAL
FROM DISTANT STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SURFACE WINDS:
W-NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ670>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST
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