119
FXUS65 KBOI 061945
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
145 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON, WITH LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD AND A LOWER CHANCE OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SEEN IN GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SPINNING
CYCLONICALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS HELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN AND MADE THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE IN THOSE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BAKER
VALLEY IN OREGON AND THE THE CASCADE AND MCCALL AREAS IN IDAHO.
HOWEVER, SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO, SOUTH OF BURNS IN OREGON AND SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY IN IDAHO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY WILL OFFER A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WHILE DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-35 MPH IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS, PAIRED WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 15% IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SW IDAHO BLM ZONES.
A FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE LONG-TERM. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A WEEK OF
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. LUCKILY FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, A TROUGH
OVER SE ALASKA WILL HELP KEEP THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF OUR
AREA. COME FRIDAY, VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS PLAYING WITH TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH OUR AREA ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT WEST OF THE RIDGE WOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES TO HIT THE TRIPLE DIGITS. COME
MONDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO WORK IT'S WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR THE THE PERCENTILE COME MONDAY. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1150 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOWS TO 25-45 KT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS: W-NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: S-SW 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. DISTANT SHOWERS AND COS OVER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOWS OF 25-35 KT MAY TRAVEL TO TERMINAL
FROM DISTANT STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SURFACE WINDS:
W-NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ORES>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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