355
FXUS65 KBOI 072045
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.
- STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS BOTH DAYS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO.
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE TO
THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN
IN IDAHO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR BAKER COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO. DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH. STORMS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
AND WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DISSIPATE IN BOTH THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THE
VALLEYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO, ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW GUSTS MAY ALSO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE
MAGIC VALLEY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY PUSHING THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH GUSTS
20-35 MPH. LOW HUMIDITY WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN
COME FRIDAY, BEFORE EXPANDING EAST OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL HELP KEEP
OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE WITH LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH.
COME MONDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK AROUND THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE VALUES THAT HIGH, THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED (ESPECIALLY ACROSS RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS), AS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES COME MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 1131 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MAINLY VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THUNDER CAPABLE OF 30-50 KT OUTFLOWS, WITH BRIEF BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED TERRAIN OBSCURATION FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-W 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 20-30 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM DISSIPATING SHOWERS/STORMS. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO NEARBY WILDFIRE SMOKE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FOOTHILLS
OBSCURED IN SMOKE. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
HEAT. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN SE 5-15 KT
TONIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ423-426.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ423-
426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ672.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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