944
FXUS65 KBOI 082332
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
532 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO MAY PRODUCE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- HOT WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THUNDERSTORMS GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START TODAY WITH THE FIRST
STRIKE HITTING BEFORE 10AM THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
EAST OF HWY 51 AND MOUNTAIN HOME AND SOUTH OF HWY 20 OUT TO
FAIRFIELD. IT'S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW EXTENDS FURTHER INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS EVENING
THOUGH IT IS GOING TO BE A RACE BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
AND AN EVENING WIND PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, EXPECT THE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO WIN THE RACE FOR MOST OF THE TREASURE
VALLEY. THESE WINDS WILL FIRST PUSH THROUGH SE OREGON COUNTIES
EARLY THIS EVENING, BRINGING GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE TYPICALLY
WINDER LOCATIONS. A QUIETER HOT AND DRY PATTERN SETTLES IN
AFTER THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RAMPING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HEAT BUILDS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
DESERT SW EXPANDS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PUT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
100 AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS NEAR 90. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS BREEZY WINDS TO
HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 126 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD,
WITH THE WELL-ADVERTISED RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-90S AND AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR 100 DEGREES AND LOCALIZED AREAS
NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY STAY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
COME MONDAY, THE SIGNAL FOR A MONSOONAL PUSH REMAINS, WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO CARRY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
HELP REINTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST COME MONDAY AND
BEYOND, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THAT MOISTURE,
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN
SCARS. ANOTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE LIGHTNING OVER DRY FUELS AFTER
A LONG STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING POTENTIAL INCREASES THE
CONCERN OF NEW FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IF INITIAL STORMS TAKE ON
A DRY POSTURE. BOTH OF THESE HAZARDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IN THE DAYS TO COME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 530 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
FAR SW AND S-CENTRAL IDAHO, INCLUDING KJER/KTWF. STORMS CAPABLE
OF OUTFLOWS TO 30-50 KT, SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND
BLOWING DUST. LOCALIZED TERRAIN OBSTRUCTION FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS WEEK DUE TO HEAT. SURFACE WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS:W-NW 5-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT 25-35 KT FROM KBKE-KONO. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: S-W 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE THIS WEEK DUE TO HEAT.
FOOTHILLS OBSCURED IN SMOKE AT TIMES FROM NEARBY FIRES. SURFACE
WINDS: W-NW 8-13 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ423-424-
426.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....NF
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