717
FXUS65 KBOI 150610
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1210 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO
SATURDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR RECENT BURN SCARS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 215 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
IN PARTICULAR, BAKER COUNTY ALONG WITH OWYHEE AND SOUTHERN TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGH PROBABILITY, 40% TO 70%, OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 18Z BOI
SOUNDING SAMPLED 1.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, PLACING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GIVEN THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
OVER RECENT BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOX, POWDER, TARTAR, AND WAPITI BURN SCARS.
ADDITIONALLY, RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VALE, BAKER AND BOISE, DISTRICTS AS SEVERAL NEW FIRES WERE
INITIATED LAST NIGHT DESPITE LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS. ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PERSIST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE EVEN FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, PROLONGING THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS VULNERABLE TERRAIN
AND BURN SCARS, INCLUDING THE WAPITI AND BIG GRASS FIRES.
BY SUNDAY, A BRIEF WINDOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WE SIT BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 215 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, CONTINUING THE TREND OF SUPPRESSING
THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PWATS WILL STAY ABOVE 50TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH, LEADING TO LOCALIZED QPF
BULLSEYES WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
UNDER DRIER WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
STARTING LATE TUESDAY, A TREND OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN, INCLUDING THE SW
ID/SE OR REGION. THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT INTENSIFIES IS
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OFFSHORE SLINGING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA LOOKS TO FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE TO END
THE WORK WEEK. AGAIN, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 1157 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
GENERALLY VFR. STORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LINGERING NEAR ID-NV BORDER THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN, SCATTERED STORMS RE-DEVELOP IN
FAR E OREGON AND SW IDAHO. STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 KT, AND MVFR-IFR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-S 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP IN SW
IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF HITTING KBOI
TERMINAL. STORMS CAPABLE OF 30-40 KT OUTFLOW GUSTS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-15 KT OVERNIGHT, GUSTS TO 15-25
KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY TAPER OFF SUNDAY,
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ID.
SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-10 KT SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SMOKE NEAR
KBKE/KBNO.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR IDZ013.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ674-675.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
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