369
FXUS65 KBOI 150835
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE BURN SCARS TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN A FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISOLATED, WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING NEAR THE
NEVADA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
IN THIS AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON
TRACK TO SWING THROUGH THE PACNW THIS AFTERNOON, GENERATING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO PERSISTING
MONSOON MOISTURE. ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY FAVOR FAR EAST OREGON
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO, BUT A 15-25% CHANCE
OF STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS. WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, VALUES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS UNDER STORM CORES...LEADING TO A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ON STEEP/ROCKY TERRAIN AND VULNERABLE BURN SCARS.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STRONGER
STORMS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (TONIGHT) INTO
SUNDAY, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. OTHERWISE,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
SUNDAY, BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A NEW SWATH OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
AGAIN ON MONDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON, AND CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TODAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FLATTENING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE AND NUDGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE EAST. AS A
RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MID-
WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE WILL MAKE A RAPID RETURN BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WHILE A
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RAPID HEATING AND THE INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 1157 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
GENERALLY VFR. STORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LINGERING NEAR THE NV BORDER THROUGH MID
MORNING. LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN, SCATTERED STORMS RE-DEVELOP IN
FAR E OREGON AND SW IDAHO. STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 KT, AND MVFR DOWNPOURS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE
5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-S 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP IN SW
IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF HITTING KBOI
TERMINAL. STORMS CAPABLE OF 30-40 KT OUTFLOW GUSTS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 KT
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSITIONING TO
ERRATIC/VARIABLE MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO NEARBY STORM ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY TAPER OFF SUNDAY,
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ID.
SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-10 KT SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SMOKE NEAR
KBKE/KBNO.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IDZ013.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ674-675.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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