893
FXUS65 KBOI 020856
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WHEN HIGHS MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS.
- A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES PEAK
STRENGTH WITH AN SUBTLE UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING BOISE, WHERE THE FORECAST HIGH OF 89 DEGREES WILL
THREATEN THE DAILY RECORD OF 88. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE THAT THE HIGH COULD REACH 90 DEGREES IN BOISE, WHICH HAS
NOT OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 2015. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE, COOLING TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
OVERALL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER AND CENTRAL IDAHO.
AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD TO OUR SOUTH
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLEAR, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SYSTEMS MOVING BY WELL TO OUR
NORTH DAMPEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOWER. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS
(PARTICULARLY THE GFS/GEFS) INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HURRICANE RACHEL (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA) TO MOVE INTO THE WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY IMPACTS IN OUR AREA FROM THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 1133 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF THIN SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT/HAZE AT THE SURFACE, MAINLY NORTH OF
KBNO AND NEAR KMYL. PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN
THE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE OR SE UNDER 7 KT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN W-NW 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS: SE OR
VARIABLE UNDER 7 KT THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING NW 5-10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR THIN SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT AND HAZE AT THE
SURFACE DUE TO PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
OR AND WEST-CENTRAL ID. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....JY/ST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page