938
FXUS65 KBOI 021138
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
538 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WHEN HIGHS MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS.
- A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 256 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES PEAK
STRENGTH WITH AN SUBTLE UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING BOISE, WHERE THE FORECAST HIGH OF 89 DEGREES WILL
THREATEN THE DAILY RECORD OF 88. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE THAT THE HIGH COULD REACH 90 DEGREES IN BOISE, WHICH HAS
NOT OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 2015. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 256 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE, COOLING TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES BUT
OVERALL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER AND CENTRAL IDAHO.
AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD TO OUR SOUTH
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLEAR, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SYSTEMS MOVING BY WELL TO OUR
NORTH DAMPEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOWER. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS
(PARTICULARLY THE GFS/GEFS) INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF HURRICANE RACHEL (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA) TO MOVE INTO THE WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY IMPACTS IN OUR AREA FROM THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 527 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING,
THEN SW-NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
W-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR UNDER PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: SE 4-8 KT
THIS MORNING, BECOMING NW 4-8 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF SMOKE
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT ON SATURDAY, E-S 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....ST
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