443
FXUS65 KBOI 022038
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- SUNDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED
DAILY RECORDS.
- A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER AND ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DESERT SW RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO RECORD TERRITORY BY SUNDAY AS LOWER ELEVATIONS REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 90 HAS BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON AND UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY IN IDAHO, REACHING 50-70% BETWEEN BOISE AND HAGERMAN. THE
DRY AIR MASS AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
COOL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL OVERNIGHT WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOCAL
HAZE/SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED FIRES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, THE CLOUD COVER COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN SETTING RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY, FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
CLOUD COVER, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (5-10%, PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND CENTRAL IDAHO),
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES (BUT OVERALL REMAINING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL). AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK IN, KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLEAR SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW.
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING, THE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES IS VAST; RANGING FROM SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA TO AN INTENSE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR. FOR NOW, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO
MESSAGE ANYTHING STRONGLY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 1139 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR UNDER HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS: 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. SURFACE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF SMOKE
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT ON SATURDAY, E-S 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....DG
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