328
FXUS65 KBOI 100009
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
609 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, TURNING MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6000-8000
FEET THIS WEEKEND.
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 247 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA BY SUNDAY
WITH A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE CONNECTED TO THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA THOUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN OR WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
COMING OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS, AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET IN EASTERN
OR, AND NORTH OF MCCALL ID, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED.
SNOW LEVELS IN ID WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH 7000 TO 8000 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 247 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE COMING WEEK.
THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR
AREA THE COOLDOWN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW THAT CLOSES OFF, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY
LOCKED IN ON TROUGHING REMAINING OVER OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO, WHERE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL. WHILE THE BEST REMNANT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY HAS A 55-65% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL FROM 6AM MDT MONDAY THROUGH 6AM
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT (15-35%) ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY, BOISE
MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN IDAHO HIGHLANDS AS THE LOW MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF EAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS HAVE
THE BETTER ODDS OF GETTING CLIPPED BY SOME OF THE WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION. THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIMIT ANY DUSTING OF SNOW TO ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL SET IN BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVING TRENDED NORTH
OUT OF OUR AREA. IN ITS WAKE, RIDGING WILL SET IN OVER THE WEST
COAST MID-WEEK, SHIFTING TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, TRENDING UPWARDS TO BE LEANING ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 516 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
GENERALLY VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS,
MAINLY NEAR KMYL. VIRGA/ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SAT/PM. GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WITH SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN E-OREGON
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. BECOMING W-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTS TAPERING OFF
EARLY AM/SAT, THEN 20-25 KT RETURNING SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10 KFT MSL: SW 15-35 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
VIRGA/ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
EVENING THROUGH SAT/AM, ALTHOUGH A LOW CHANCE (<10%) OF RAIN AT
TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT, PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20-25
KT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTS RETURNING SAT
AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW (CENTRAL ID), SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN,
BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING FROM ID-NV BORDER THROUGH
S-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY. PRECIP MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. SNOW LEVELS 6-8KFT MSL ACROSS SW IDAHO, 4-6KFT FOR SE
OREGON. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP AND IN MTN SNOW. SURFACE WINDS: W-N
5-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT SAT/SUN.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ423-426.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
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