419
FXUS65 KBOI 121748
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1148 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
IDAHO SIDE, WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MAGIC VALLEY AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS.
- SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000-6500 FT MSL THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHWEST ID.
- FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 344 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
CENTERED OVER EASTERN OR WILL SLOWLY DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY (MONDAY) THROUGH TUESDAY, AS ITS MOISTURE LOAD
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING,
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN SPATIAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, AND MORE MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND BREEZES, WILL BE IN
STORE TODAY WITH THE LOW PASSAGE. SNOW LEVELS IN THE 5000-6500
RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ID WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWER MAGIC VALLEY AREA NEAR THE NV BORDER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BRING
MORNING FROSTS OVER MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY, RETURNING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR- SEASONAL
NORMALS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED 344 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
KEEPING OUR AREA IN A WARM AND DRY TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, WITH SOME OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, A PACIFIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND KEEP OUR
AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COME
MONDAY, A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DIVE DOWN FROM LOWER
BRITISH COLUMBIA BUT KEEP OUR AREA UNDER A STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THERE IS LONG-TERM GUIDANCE ON
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARRIVING BY LATE
MONDAY, BUT ITS TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN
FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 1148 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY VFR. LINGERING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MTN
VALLEY LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MTN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN S-CENTRAL ID, TAPERING OFF TUE/PM. SURFACE WINDS:
W-N 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: VARIABLE 5-15 KT BECOMING
N-NE 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TUE/AM. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-12 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR IDZ012-014-016.
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
MDT /9 AM PDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....JY
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