722
FXUS65 KBOI 130909
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE LOWER MAGIC VALLEY.
- COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BRING PATCHY FROST AND NEAR-FREEZING CONDITIONS, WITH
FROST ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN VALLEY AREAS.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS
MOVED SOUTH OF US INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION TODAY (TUESDAY). THE LOW'S REMAINING MOISTURE
LOAD WILL CONTINUE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR THE NV BORDER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS IN
THE 4500-6000 FT MSL RANGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ID WILL CONTINUE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND THE OWYHEES. LOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING, COUPLED WITH SOME HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE, WILL BRING
DENSE FROST COVERAGES OVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS SUCH, A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A PACIFIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BY TONIGHT,
BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY OVER THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AREAS. THURSDAY WILL SEE PEAK TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PACIFIC HIGH FURTHER
AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHWEST REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LARGE PACIFIC HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNINGS. ON SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
LOOKING TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THOSE DAYS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER
THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 1139 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS TO THE MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS BRINGING BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500-5500 FT MSL. WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10KFT MSL: N-NE 10-20 KT BECOMING N 20-30 KT BY TUES/12Z.
KBOI...VFR. SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUE/AM. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-12 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 6 KT
LATE TUESDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ012-014-016.
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....SA
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