471
FXUS65 KBOI 150540
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1140 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- COOLER CONDITIONS AFTER MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MAINTAINING STABLE, DRY, AND MILD CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTWEIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION, THERMAL TROUGHING
AT THE SURFACE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO TREND GRADUALLY WARMER EACH AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD PEAKS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER RIVER
VALLEYS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO DUE TO
LIMITED MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EFFECTIVELY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND KICK OFF A
COOLING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY SUNDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BACK UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS THE TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH KEEPS THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOCUSED WEST OF THE CASCADES AND MOSTLY
OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (15-20%) ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 1140 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED BURNING NEAR KBNO KMYL. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NE 10-20KT. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10KT OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT THEN E-SE 5-10KT THU AFTERNOON.
KBOI...VFR. NW 5-10KT OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING SE 5-10KT BY THU
AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....KA
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
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