811
FXUS65 KBOI 151215
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
615 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING COOLER CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
UNDER STRONG RIDGING AS THE PACIFIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES
AND COLDER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FROSTS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE CENTERS RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. A WEAK,
DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST REGION
SATURDAY, BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, MAINLY OVER UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEY AREAS, ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY WILL HELP DROP PEAK
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, OUR AREA WILL COME UNDER A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC UPPER LOW FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP MONDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH ELEVATED WIND BREEZES FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS BETTER
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA COASTS BEFORE MOVING INLAND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN A COOLDOWN
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE MAGNITUDE AND
COVERAGE EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION EVENT NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, NEXT THURSDAY
IS LOOKING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 608 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR. PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN OR THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE
FROM PRESCRIBED BURNING NEAR KBNO AND KMYL. SURFACE WINDS: S-SW
5-10 KT THIS MORNING BECOMING THEN E-SE 5-10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
KBOI...VFR. S AND VARIABLE UNDER 7 KT THIS MORNING, THEN
SHIFTING SE 5-10KT BY THU AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SAT/SUN. AREAS
OF SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY EAST OF KBOI ON SATURDAY, THEN S-SE
5-10 KT SUNDAY
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....JY
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