579
FXUS65 KBOI 152035
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING COOLER CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS STABLE, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. DRY SURFACE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MILD AFTERNOONS AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AT NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY TO GENERATE
LOCALIZED AFTERNOON BREEZES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COOLS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
BECOMES A CUT OFF LOW IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY EVENING, INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SE OREGON ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF
ON TUESDAY, AS THE EARLIEST MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, INHERENT TO CUT OFF LOWS, THAT
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHEN IT PASSES, IT
WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN TO NORMAL, LOW 60S FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGH IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS, LOW 50S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE CLOUD COVER, AND
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING COULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED 1116 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED BURNING NEAR KBNO AND KMYL.
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN EASTERN OREGON. SURFACE WINDS:
E-SE 5-10KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: E-NE
5-10 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS SE 5-15KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SAT/SUN. AREAS
OF SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS. SURFACE WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY EAST OF KBOI ON SATURDAY, THEN S-SE
5-10 KT SUNDAY
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM
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