094
FXUS65 KBOU 191019
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
419 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY FOCUSING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
- SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 9,500 TO 10,000
FEET.
- TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM I-70 SOUTH ABOVE
10,000 FT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUR MOUNTAINS.
- DRY AND WARMER FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
GOES-18 SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WYOMING
AND COLORADO BORDER. WITH METARS REPORTING LOW VISIBILITY ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR, IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING ON I-25 THIS
MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUD
SHOULD CLEAR THUS IMPROVING VISIBILITY. THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, CAMS SUPPORT A DECREASE TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS UPDATE INCLUDED A MAJOR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALLING IN THE FOUR CORNER, IT IS REASONABLE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION SEEMS SPARSE DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND THE CENTER
OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MAINLY
FOCUS ON AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS SHOULD EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION UNDER
1-2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACH 4-5C FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH 51-60F THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS SIT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT 39-49F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE, AND FINALLY BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK
ACROSS COLORADO. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW, LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE LACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WHICH
IS NOW EXPECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING NORTH OF I-70, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
ON THE PLAINS, AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10,000'. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT MIXED WITH QG SUPPORT FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MEDICINE BOW AND PARK RANGES,
WITH LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 10,000' IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS 25-
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF I-70 AND SOUTH OF I-76. OVERNIGHT, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 10,500')
SEEING UP TO 3" OF NEW SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT
COMBINED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHILE WEAK RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WE CAN EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
LOWERS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. APPROACHING MID-WEEK, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID TEENS, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT FRI OCT 18 2024
PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10Z FOR KAPA AND
KBJC DUE TO FOG. CLOUD DECKS REMAIN LOW NEAR 6-9 THOUSAND FEET.
THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF BREAKS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-19Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...BONNER
AVIATION...AD
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