319
FXUS65 KBOU 191736
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1136 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 9,500 TO 10,000
FEET.
- TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- DRY AND WARMER FOR ALL THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ARIZONA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS I-70, BUT ANY
DECENT RAIN/SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWARD.
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE A WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY
EXPECTED. WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL PARTIAL CLEARING
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO AROUND I-70 THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, THERE IS SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH PARK WHERE IT
CLEAR SOME OVERNIGHT AND HELPED COOL THE AIR. THIS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND CLEAR UP BY NOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
GOES-18 SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WYOMING
AND COLORADO BORDER. WITH METARS REPORTING LOW VISIBILITY ALONG
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR, IT IS
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THOSE TRAVELING ON I-25 THIS
MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUD
SHOULD CLEAR THUS IMPROVING VISIBILITY. THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, CAMS SUPPORT A DECREASE TO OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS UPDATE INCLUDED A MAJOR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALLING IN THE FOUR CORNER, IT IS REASONABLE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION SEEMS SPARSE DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND THE CENTER
OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MAINLY
FOCUS ON AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS SHOULD EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION UNDER
1-2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACH 4-5C FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH 51-60F THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS SIT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT 39-49F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE, AND FINALLY BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK
ACROSS COLORADO. UPSTREAM OF THE LOW, LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE LACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WHICH
IS NOW EXPECTED TO KEEP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING NORTH OF I-70, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
ON THE PLAINS, AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
10,000'. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT MIXED WITH QG SUPPORT FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MEDICINE BOW AND PARK RANGES,
WITH LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 10,000' IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS 25-
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS NORTH OF I-70 AND SOUTH OF I-76. OVERNIGHT, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 10,500')
SEEING UP TO 3" OF NEW SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT
COMBINED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHILE WEAK RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WE CAN EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
LOWERS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. APPROACHING MID-WEEK, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID TEENS, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
LOW THREAT (LESS THAN 20%) FOR CEILINGS UNDER 6000 FEET FOR THE
REST TODAY AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DENVER CYCLONE AFTER 18Z. WINDS TO START OFF SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY AND COULD REMAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 00Z. IF THE
CYCLONE FORMS/SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF DEN, A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WOULD OCCUR. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL AROUND 02Z ONCE THE
DENVER CYCLONE BREAKS DOWN. FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE NORTH
OF DEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS AND BRINGS
NW TO N WINDS TO DEN IT WOULD BRING THE FOG WITH IT. ABOUT A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE FOG TO REACH DEN AFTER 11Z SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...BONNER
AVIATION...MEIER
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