766
FXUS65 KBOU 201625
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1025 AM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY RAIN OR SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
- MORNING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. A CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
SATELLITE SHOWS THE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND IT SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE NOON. THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SINCE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUN WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP. POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
STORMS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NOT EARLIER AS PREVIOUSLY
SUSPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE DECREASING, WITH ONLY
A FEW DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT, WE ARE
EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THIS COULD BRING SOME DECREASED VISIBILITY IN AREAS WHERE
THIS FORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY... AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT
HEAVY SNOW TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA, NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS
THROUGHOUT TODAY. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS, MAINLY FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH TO I-76,
WHERE 25-35 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY, WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PLAINS. LATE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW, AS IT FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE OUT OF AZ,
ON A PATH TOWARDS COLORADO.
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW AND MID-LEVELS TODAY, WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE PLAINS DRY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS, ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE LOW STARTS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION,
BRINGING OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE AND INCREASED QG SUPPORT. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SUN OCT 20 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND THEN BE OVER WRN KANSAS/SWRN NEBRASKA BY THE AFTN. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS, THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT IN THE MTNS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACK, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN, WILL SEE DECENT
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP. THUS SHOULD SEE PCPN GRADUALLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, A CRITICAL
LAYER WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AS WELL, HOWEVER, CROSS-BARRIER FLOW
IS ONLY FCST AROUND 30 KTS. AS A RESULT, WILL SEE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 50- 60 MPH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY
LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN. OVER THE PLAINS, IT WILL BE WINDY AS
WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 30'S. HIGHS OVER NERN CO, WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
BY TUE, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK SFC LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WNW WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR
WED. HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THU AND FRI, A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SAT OCT 19 2024
WINDS HAVE SETTLED INTO DRAINAGE AT ALL AIRPORTS TONIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE IF FOG SPREADS SOUTH AND INTO
THE DENVER AREA TAF SITES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY, HOLDING IT JUST NORTH OF DEN, BUT HAVE KEPT
THE TEMPO GROUP AS THERE MAY STILL BE IMPACTS IN THE MORNING WITH
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED. EXPECT IMPACTS TO
DIMINISH BY 16/17Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH AT APA AROUND 19Z AND SPREAD NORTH TO DEN AND BJC BY
23Z. ONCE WINDS INCREASE, GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DANIELSON
SHORT TERM...BONNER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BONNER
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