164
FXUS65 KBOU 220321
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
921 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE AND COLD WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- COOLER FRIDAY, BUT WARMING UP AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE COMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS
CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT LOWS
WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE AND THE THREAT FOR FROST SEEMS TO BE
DECREASING. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
A CUT-OFF TROUGH IS DEPARTING COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE
ARE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST DUE TO THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS LIKE ROCKY
FLATS AND THE FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING GUSTS UP TO 56 MPH. THE REST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THESE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 6PM BEFORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DUE
TO SUNSET AND A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TONIGHT, MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO WITH
SUBSIDENT FLOW. THERE WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. IN
THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NEAR GREELEY AND FORT MORGAN, LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 30S DUE TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY
FROST COULD DEVELOP BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS, LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S EXPECTED.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER SUBSIDENT FLOW UNDER THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE MORNING WILL RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE NO WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW DISSENTING
OPINIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY,
BUT THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD SHOW ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THIS SYSTEM, THURSDAY COULD STILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS
THE PLAINS LEADING TO ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE WINDIER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS GRADIENTS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FRIDAY WILL THEN BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WE'VE CONTINUED
THE COOLING TREND PER LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AS RIDGING REBUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND, WE ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY.
THERE ARE FAIRLY SOLID SIGNS PER LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT
WE'LL UNDERGO A PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. THAT COULD START AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE 25TH-75TH TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES, BUT AVERAGES ARE
POINTING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY.
WHEN THE COOLER AIR DOES ARRIVE, IT WILL ALSO OFFER UP SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, AND JUST MAYBE, THE FIRST CHANCE OF SNOW
THIS SEASON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON OCT 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN RIGHT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING AT
KDEN AND KAPA. IT COULD TAKE UNTIL 0030Z FOR ALL OF THE GUSTS TO
SUBSIDE BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE ENDED. AT KBJC, THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST LONGER INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
SUBSIDING BETWEEN 03-05Z.
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A USUAL LIGHT WINDS PATTERN
WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AS WINDS GO FROM NORTHWEST IN THE
MORNING, TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DANIELSON
SHORT TERM...DANIELSON
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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