683
FXUS65 KBOU 221800
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE AND COLD WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
- SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE COMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
WINDS ARE STARTING TO RELAX THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH 35 MPH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR
THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE, WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70'S OVER NERN
CO.
FOR TONIGHT, A COOL FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND IT OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THERE COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS CENTRAL WELD,
MORGAN AND LOGAN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FLOW SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WITH THE ECM
AND ITS ENSEMBLE ON THE QUICKER/COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER ON
THURSDAY, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER TREND
STICKS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (60S FOR
THE PLAINS) ON FRIDAY, BUT WE'D STILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY YET AGAIN, WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR MID/UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
AS WE GET TO NEXT WEEK, A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE WESTERN U.S., WHICH WOULD USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
AREA. STILL QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT, BUT THERE ARE
PROMISING SIGNS THAT WE'LL FINALLY BREAK THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN
OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 10-12Z. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS DEVELOP IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DANIELSON
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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