455
FXUS65 KBOU 241031
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
431 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY TODAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
- WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.
- A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY (>70%), AND A CHANCE
FOR THE FIRST WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND NRN CO
TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD SHOT OF MID LEVEL ASCENT THIS MORNING WHICH
QUICKLY GETS REPLACED BY DOWNWARD DESCENT BY 18Z. CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS OVER
WY. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS NEAR THE WY BORDER WILL SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS LATER
THIS MORNING. CROSS-SECTIONS DONT'T SHOW MUCH OF A MTN WAVE,
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE OVER THE
HIGHER MTNS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. ACROSS THE
PLAINS, IT WILL BE WINDY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH
THE WY BORDER BY LATE MORNING AND THEN BLAST ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN, AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR AS WELL. NATURALLY, WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ISSUE WHICH IS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE WY-NE
BORDER WITH UPPER 70'S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS SRN LINCOLN COUNTY. IN
BETWEEN READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BE EARLY EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES,
THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
PALMER DIVIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
FRIDAY WILL FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE FALL COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THEIR LOWEST VALUES OF THE SEASON
ACROSS THE METRO/PLAINS, AND TEMPERATURES WILL "ONLY" REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THAT'S STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - BUT AT LEAST IT'S A LITTLE CLOSER TO WHAT
LATE OCTOBER SHOULD FEEL LIKE. WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE "COOLDOWN" WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT LIVED, AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AND THE
ADDED DOWNSLOPING SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 80S. AT THIS POINT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY (83F) AND MONDAY (82F) APPEAR TO BE JUST OUT OF REACH,
BUT WE'LL LIKELY END UP PRETTY CLOSE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE STRONGEST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEK, WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS
REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A STRONG TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES - THIS TIME ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL - FOR A FEW DAYS
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER REACHING THE PLAINS, BUT
PROBABILITIES VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON YOUR ENSEMBLE SYSTEM OF
CHOICE. STILL A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT A
STORM TRACK, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
WINDS WERE SSW EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME WSW BY 14Z.
BY 16Z, WINDS MAY HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY 18Z WITH GUSTY
NNW WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z WILL BE AROUND
40 MPH WITH A 30% CHANCE OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FROM 45 TO 50 MPH
AT DIA. BY 22Z WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NNE AND SLOWLY DECREASE
THRU 00Z. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY WITH LIGHTER
SPEEDS AND TRANSITION TO SE BY 05Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6 MILES OR SO
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT DIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST
AREAS, THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO
RAPID FIRE GROWTH IF A FIRE WERE TO START. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTN AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE RIDGE BRINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID REACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA, BUT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ215-216-238>251.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ038-041>051.
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK/HIRIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page