797
FXUS65 KBOU 261203
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
503 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIETER BUT STILL COLD TODAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SNOW (20-30% CHANCE)
TOWARDS MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW VAST IMPROVEMENTS FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE LINGERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT, BUT ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS, IT SEEMS
LIKE THINGS ARE PRETTY MUCH WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH QG
ASCENT EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHLIGHTS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND THINGS LOOK ON TRACK TO EXPIRE THE LAST EXISTING ONE
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT 5AM.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT IT
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, SHUTTING OFF BY THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN 3
ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK AND THE INDIAN PEAKS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY, STAYING IN THE 20S ASIDE FROM THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOW 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLAINS, AND BRING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BACK DOWN TO SUBZERO LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRIER AIR
ALOFT, ALONG WITH VERY WEAK FLOW, SHOULD KEEP THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 40S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES. WE'LL LIKELY MIX OUT IN MOST ELEVATIONS,
BUT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO FULLY MIX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WE'LL SPEND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALL MEANDER TOWARDS THE EAST, BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS
AND EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE
PLACE, AND I HAVE VERY LITTLE INSIGHT TO OFFER. THE NBM POPS IN
THE 15-35% RANGE SEEM LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE GIVEN THE OVERALL
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WE'VE PERHAPS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS A BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH SOMEWHAT OF A "CONSENSUS"
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR AIFS COUNTERPARTS. IT'S WORTH
WATCHING AS THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA.
MODEL CERTAINTY CERTAINLY DOESN'T IMPROVE MUCH AS WE GET TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
(IN THE 50S/60S), WHILE OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. THE SIGNAL FOR ANY SUSTAINED COLD COMES BEYOND OUR
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AGAIN LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 300' AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AND VISIBILITIES KEEP FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 9SM AS BR
HAS DEVELOPED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH POTENTIAL OF VIS
LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1SM BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z (~30% CHANCE) AT
KDEN AS THE LOW STRATUS POTENTIALLY LOWER ENOUGH TO BECOME FG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 18Z, WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
BY 20/21Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ031-033.
SHORT TERM...BONNER
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...BONNER
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