070
FXUS65 KBOU 261820
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1120 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIETER BUT STILL COLD TODAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SNOW (20-30% CHANCE)
TOWARDS MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE PLAINS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP. THE STATUS BREAKOUT PROGRAM SAYS AROUND 20Z. WE'LL
SEE! WILL END THE FLURRIES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 20Z. WILL KEEP THE
SCATTERED ALPINE SNOW SHOWERS GOING AS IS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY CHILLY OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS. WILL ADJUST THE CLOUD
COVER AND MINOR POPS TIMING A BIT, BIT OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE OKAY.
IT SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR TONIGHT SO WILL KEY ON TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW VAST IMPROVEMENTS FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE LINGERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT, BUT ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, AS WELL AS SOME SLICK ROADS, IT SEEMS
LIKE THINGS ARE PRETTY MUCH WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH QG
ASCENT EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHLIGHTS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND THINGS LOOK ON TRACK TO EXPIRE THE LAST EXISTING ONE
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT 5AM.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT IT
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, SHUTTING OFF BY THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN 3
ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK AND THE INDIAN PEAKS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY, STAYING IN THE 20S ASIDE FROM THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOW 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLAINS, AND BRING THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BACK DOWN TO SUBZERO LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRIER AIR
ALOFT, ALONG WITH VERY WEAK FLOW, SHOULD KEEP THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 40S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES. WE'LL LIKELY MIX OUT IN MOST ELEVATIONS,
BUT SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO FULLY MIX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WE'LL SPEND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALL MEANDER TOWARDS THE EAST, BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS
AND EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE
PLACE, AND I HAVE VERY LITTLE INSIGHT TO OFFER. THE NBM POPS IN
THE 15-35% RANGE SEEM LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE GIVEN THE OVERALL
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WE'VE PERHAPS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS A BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH SOMEWHAT OF A "CONSENSUS"
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR AIFS COUNTERPARTS. IT'S WORTH
WATCHING AS THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA.
MODEL CERTAINTY CERTAINLY DOESN'T IMPROVE MUCH AS WE GET TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
(IN THE 50S/60S), WHILE OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. THE SIGNAL FOR ANY SUSTAINED COLD COMES BEYOND OUR
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AGAIN LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
PESKY SNOW FLURRIES AND VISIBILITY ISSUES AT DIA THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES DONE OVER THE PLAINS BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SKIES CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD ADHERE TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...BONNER
LONG TERM....HIRIS
AVIATION.....RJK
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