055
FXUS65 KBOU 262333
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
433 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING TONIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SNOW (20-30% CHANCE)
TOWARDS MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
THERE ARE STILL SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS. THEY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT THIS TIME. THE STRATUS
HAS ERODED AWAY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL COVERING SOME OF THE PALMER RIDGE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS ARE MOSTLY STILL IN THE 20S.
THERE ARE SOME 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN BORDER
AREAS AND THE PALMER RIDGE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FOR THE CWA BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE
THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A FEW ALPINE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE INDICATED ON THE THE CROSS SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES, THICKNESS GRIDS
DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TONIGHT'S CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW READINGS TO DROP INTO THE 5
TO 15 F RANGE FOR THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
WE WILL BE ENTERING A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS
COLORADO WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS WITH DRY AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS WILL RISE UP TO THE MID TO
HIGH 40S EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT WON'T
RISE UP THAT HIGH, AROUND THE PALMER DIVIDE, DUE TO THE SNOWPACK.
NOW FOR THE NEXT UPCOMING SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO GIVE US CLARITY.
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FINALLY IN AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. AROUND THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED IN CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY EJECT EAST INTO OUR AREA. THE
EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH THE EPS TRENDING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH IN NEW MEXICO THAN THE CMCE AND GEFS, WHO HAVE IT A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. IF THE SYSTEM
FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE. IF THE SYSTEM FAVORS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
LIKE THE GEFS AND CMCE HAVE, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW (20-
30%), SO HAVE DECIDED TO REFER TO THE NBM GUIDANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNTIL MODELS COME MORE IN AGREEMENT. HOPEFULLY TOMORROW'S
UPDATE WILL PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT!
LOOKING PAST THIS SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COULD BE 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE CMC ENSEMBLE SIGNALING FOR 60 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DENVER ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM....RJK
LONG TERM.....BARJENBRUCH/IDEKER
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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