043
FXUS65 KBOU 270930
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
230 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING TONIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SNOW (20-30% CHANCE)
TOWARDS MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD AND MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SOLAR INSOLATION VS. THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE HRRR (ALONG WITH A FEW OTHER CAMS) QUICKLY MELT OUT THE SNOW
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. OTHER GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE (E.G.,
GFS/ECMWF) WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. WE'LL
LIKELY END UP IN BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND A MODEL BLEND LOOKED
LIKE THE BEST ROUTE FORWARD. BEST GUESS IS THAT AREAS WITH THE
LOWER SNOWPACK SWE (SOUTH METRO AND EAST OF I-25) END UP MUCH
WARMER THAN AREAS WITH MORE SNOW PACK AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
WHERE IT'LL BE HARD TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE METRO,
WITH BELOW ZERO VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD DRIFT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO SWING IN SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOME MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. MOST
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SOLUTION KEEPS PRECIPITATION LIGHT, AND THE
THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL FOR ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE IS DRY ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM
POPS REFLECT THIS TREND PRETTY WELL AND WERE REPRESENTATIVE
ENOUGH.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT 60S TO PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOW 70S FOR THE METRO, BUT OUR FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE
MULTI-MODEL MEAN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR, WITH WEAK DRAINAGE WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WILL RETURN MONDAY
EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HIRIS
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page