727
FXUS65 KBOU 280025
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
525 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH NORMAL SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SNOW (NOW UP TO 20-60%
CHANCE) TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES
STILL SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
- WARMER BUT BREEZY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS RANGE FROM THE 40S OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND URBAN CORRIDOR, TO THE 30S OVER THE REST OF THE
FLATLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN
THE FOOTHILLS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF THE HIGH
PARKS. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS AREA ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH WEAK
WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER
HAS MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING, AND IS NOW SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
EAST-WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE
DESERT. THE LOW HAS BOTTOMED OUT ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY, SO
MODELS "SHOULD" BE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK.
WHAT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER STRONG
NORTHWARD TREND OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS IN ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT AS SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE DPROG/DT. IN THE LATEST OUTPUT, THERE
IS NOW DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM ARIZONA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FROM
THERE, THE UPPER LOW IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL, THIS IS A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK, AS ONLY
IN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS HAS THERE BEEN MORE AGREEMENT. THE UPPER
LOW JUST MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING, SO ADDITIONAL SAMPLING AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOULD HELP. WE HOPE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE
COMING 12 HOURS. WHAT'S ALSO UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF
SNOW (DESPITE SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVING A VERY
FAVORABLE TRACK AND GULF MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE STORM), AS
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WE DID
NOTE THAT THERE IS SOME SPORADIC FORCING AND LIMITED LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING
CONSIDERING THE TRACK. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE, THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
ALSO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW (BEING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW) FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST ODDS
(50-60% CHANCE) OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER,
BUT DENVER COULD ALSO SEE ACCUMULATIONS (30-40% CHANCE), AND
THOSE ODDS HAVE GROWN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL JUST A FEW
MEMBERS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES AND THOSE
ARE ALMOST ALL EXCLUSIVELY POINTING TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF DENVER.
BEYOND THAT, MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT IN SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COMING IN BY FRIDAY WITH RAPID WARMING AND DRYING. THE
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT IT COULD BECOME
BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY AT TIMES WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING.
IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING INTO
SOME SNOW, AS LONG AS THE FLOW STAYS ZONAL ENOUGH AND AWAY FROM A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE STRENGTH
AND DURATION OF THE WARMUP, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION FOR DEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WITH A SNOW FIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT, IT IS
LIKELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS
STRONG AS 12 KNOTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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