662
FXUS65 KBOU 040552
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1052 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF DENVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
- SNOWY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS INTO
TUESDAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE INITIAL SPIN UP OF THE LOW WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN MANY OF THE MODELS WERE FORECASTING. FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO, THIS HAS LED TO WEAKER PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA, LIKELY KEEPING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTFUL
WEATHER EAST OF COLORADO. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT IF WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST AND THE BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW STARTS TO FORM EAST OF THE AREA WE WILL BE DOWNGRADING AND/OR
CANCELING MANY OF OUR WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
EVERYTHING IS STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AS THE QG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE CYCLOGENESIS IS BEGINNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAVE TURNED
NORTHEAST AND ARE PICKING UP. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL REALLY DRY OVER
THE PLAINS SO WE'LL SPEND A FEW HOURS WITH VIRGA THIS EVENING
BEFORE WE START TO GET RAIN AND SNOW. THERE'S STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT THE COOLING RATE, AS THE INCOMING AIR IS QUITE MOIST AND IT
MAY BE "TOO WET TO SNOW" OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
BUT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000-5500 FEET THE CHANGEOVER SHOULD BE
MID TO LATE EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE RUSH HOUR SHOULD BE SAFE.
THERE'S NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WHAT WE
DID AT MIDDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW BAND AND HIGH
WINDS. WE BUMPED UP BOTH THE LOW END AND HIGH END SNOW AMOUNTS IN
OUR PROBABILISTIC PACKAGE BELIEVING THAT IT SHOULD SNOW A LITTLE
ALMOST EVERYWHERE, BUT DOWNSLOPING PLAINS AREAS MAY HAVE ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT AND THEN NOTHING ON TUESDAY.
DENVER'S STILL THE TOUGH SPOT WITH THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING. WE STILL THINK THAT'S
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY AS THE CHANCE OF HAVING THAT INTENSITY AT
THE SAME TIME IT'S COLD ENOUGH LOOKS LOW. MAYBE A 10-20% CHANCE OF
GETTING THAT BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT? OTHERWISE THERE'S PROBABLY
NOT MUCH IMPACT TO DENVER WITH EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN A
STEADY BUT LIGHT SNOW FOR A WHILE LATER TONIGHT, ALONG WITH WARM
ROADS. IF IT'S A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST EDGES
OF THE METRO AREA COULD HAVE SOME ROAD IMPACTS FOR THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THERE WILL BE A FIERCE GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL HEADING
SOUTH FROM DENVER TUESDAY MORNING, AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN WIND
AND BLOWING SNOW GOING EAST!
THE OTHER PLACE THAT'S PRETTY WILD IS SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES. IT'S GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW, BUT
A FOOT OF SNOW ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY AROUND
HOLYOKE. OUR FORECAST IS SHOOTING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE
OPTIONS. WITH THE WIND BEING SO STRONG, EVEN A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IT'S MORE OF AN ORDINARY STORM, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN LARIMER COUNTY AND LESS LIKELY IN
THE MAIN TRAVEL CORRIDORS.
THE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
THOUGH THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BE SLOWING AS IT EXITS EAST OF
AKRON AND LIMON. BUT THE WIND WILL KEEP BLOWING SO THE BLIZZARD'S
IMPACTS MAY LINGER WELL BEHIND THE SNOWFALL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING IN THE AREA OF HEAVY
SNOW ON THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING. THE ENDING TIME OF THE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IS A PRAGMATIC ESTIMATE OF WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT THERE WILL STILL PROBABLY BE
SOME IMPACTS AFTER THAT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK OROGRAPHIC WESTERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. ON THURSDAY, A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING, ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, OVER COLORADO. THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. DUE TO THE POOR SOUTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHIC FLOW, SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF QG LIFT AND INSTABILITY, CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MOVING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. FURTHER EAST, THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE A
BETTER CHANCE (40-60%) OF SNOW, MAINLY NORTH OF I- 70 FROM TO A
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME,
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT. FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS AND UKMET
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS METRO DENVER AND THE PALMER DIVIDE DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF, KEEP
DENVER DRY. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20 POPS GIVEN BY THE NBM
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALL RAIN AND DEN AND END IN A
FEW HOURS, AROUND 08Z. AT APA, SNOW LINGERS UNTIL 10-12Z WITH
VISIBILITY STAYING ABOVE 1 MILES AND MOSTLY ABOVE 2 MILES.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY, LEADING TO
A CEILING OF 3000-5000 FEET. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. WINDS START TO DECREASE
TOWARDS 00Z, AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET (01Z).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ033-034.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ038-042>045-048.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ041-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ042-048.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ046-049.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ047.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ047.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ050-051.
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MEIER
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