474
FXUS65 KBOU 041638
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
938 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- HIGH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
- AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTWARD
ACROSS ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
- SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN
PLACES.
- TWO WEAK SYSTEMS WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RESULT IN POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING ARE GRANTING US A PEAK AT
WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS OBSERVED, WHICH IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
PINNED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE FOOTPRINT. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS WERE
MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS,
PRECIPITATION CHANGES PUSHED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, BUT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A
RESURGENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS ARE CONCERNED, THEY'RE HOWLING ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR EAST OF DENVER WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
REACHING THE 60-75 MPH RANGE. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WE'LL SEE MODEST
STRENGTHENING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS, BUT EVEN SO IT'S QUITE
UNLIKELY WE'LL REACH CRITERIA ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PARTS
OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR THROUGH MORGAN COUNTY. THUS, WIND HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THOSE AREAS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED, BUT THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REMAINS SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTS 50-65 MPH (HIGHER FOR THE I-70
CORRIDOR INTO LINCOLN COUNTY).
LASTLY, HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR
GIVEN THE RAPID CLEARING, AND SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL BREAK INTO
THE LOWER 50'S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
SATELLITE SHOWING THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BAND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS
FORMED ON THE BACKSIDE OF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. FARTHER WEST,
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS WEAKER, AND NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER AREAS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY WESTWARD TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE. COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER 12Z, BUT BY THIS TIME IF IT CHANGES TO SNOW, IT WILL
BE WET AND LIGHT, AND NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE MUCH IF ANY IMPACTS.
PLAN ON CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS...NORTHEAST WELD, LOGAN, SEDGWICK,
PHILLIPS, EASTERN ADAMS/ARAPAHOE, AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
WILL DOWNGRADE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PALMER DIVIDE TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART. STRONG
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. FOR WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IT WILL BE A
LAST SECOND DECISION, BUT WILL SEE IF WE GET A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
TO DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY, OR ELSE WE WILL CANCEL THE BLIZZARD
WARNING.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT IS EAST OF THE
AREA AND DUE NORTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE. THE SNOW HAS
DECREASED/ENDED OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. AS THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION, FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY CREATING OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. THE INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS ARE LIGHTER,
AND THUS WILL DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
WINDS TURN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THERE'S ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
POSSIBLE.
FOR THE HIGH WIND THREAT, WE STILL EXPECT GUSTS TOPPING 60 MPH
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WESTERN
PARTS OF THE WARNING (EASTERN LARIMER & WESTERN/CENTRAL WELD
COUNTIES).
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING
FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THERE'S LIKELY
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
THERE WILL BE RIDGING OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A QUICK-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH SUCH THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN THE MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
THEN 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
WILL BE FOCUSED IN WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THEREFORE, POPS WERE KEPT RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT ISN'T UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THOUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THAT
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS
WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST
FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO MISS OUR FORECAST AREA JUST LIKE
THE FIRST ONE. THIS BOWLING BALL-LIKE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE STRONG QG
ASCENT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK QG ASCENT OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OR WILL ONLY HAVE
FLURRIES.
WHEN COMBINING THE TWO SYSTEMS, THE WESTERN SLOPES ON THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL CREATE POOR
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST.
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY WITH MOST MEMBERS AT OR ABOVE 70 F FOR
KDEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL BASES 070-100 WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL BKN COVERAGE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, BUT EVEN THAT IS LOW CONFIDENCE (25-30% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ROBUST NORTH WINDS PERSISTING MUCH OF THE DAY,
STRONGEST TO THE EAST OF I-25 INCLUDING KDEN. STILL BELIEVE PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE) THROUGH EARLY/MID PM.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING, AND THEN FAVOR
VARIABLE/LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ031-
033-034.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041-042-
045>051.
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANIELSON
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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