103
FXUS65 KBOU 050028
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
528 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING; CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- TWO WEAK SYSTEMS WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
MAY RESULT IN POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE PLAINS AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE ON TIME. THERE'S
STILL A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER CLEAR CREEK COUNTY, BUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY MINIMAL NOW. WIND GUSTS ARE
MOSTLY 40 MPH NORTH TO 50 MPH SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WINDS REMAIN ROBUST ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXCEEDING 55 MPH HAVE LARGELY BECOME CONFINED TO LINCOLN COUNTY.
TRIMMED THE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BACK A FEW ZONES BUT WILL LEAVE THE
EASTERN PLAINS ONES IN PLACE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAKENING
OF WINDS WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE GUSTS SO
FAR TODAY, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 70-82 MPH IN LINCOLN COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH WE'RE MORE THAN LIKELY PAST THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.
MEANWHILE, SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUE
TO SPORADICALLY SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE, ALTHOUGH THE LATTER LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LIMITED IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AS NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN SOME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE, WE
SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT AND LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, FAVORING THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING
AREAS OF SUMMIT, GRAND AND CLEAR CREEK COUNTIES. THERE, AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 5" CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS,
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
IN OUR MOUNTAINS.
SKY COVER WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT,
WITH CHILLIER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20'S AND LOCALLY THE
UPPER TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOMORROW, TRANQUIL WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL UNDER WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING, WITH MARGINALLY MILDER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. DUE
TO THE POOR SOUTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
INTO COLORADO AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A 115KT+ UPPER JET OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SNOW RETURNING TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. ONCE AGAIN, SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, QG LIFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET AND
A PASSING SHORTWAVE, ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY, MAY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PARK RANGE WHICH DOES BETTER IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, IT
COULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SPLITS WITH THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A MUCH WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. WITH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND DECREASED MOISTURE, SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THESE RISES COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, MAY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH SOME
INSTABILITY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT
PLAINS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY MONDAY, MANY PLAINS LOCATIONS COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER DENVER WITH BASES BETWEEN 5,000 AND 7,500
FT AGL WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30
KNOT RANGE WILL ALSO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY 03Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
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