735
FXUS65 KBOU 051749
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1049 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ONE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BORDER
AREA. ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT
IN POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- VERY MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY BE IN THE 70S ON
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE (TRAPPED WAVES) IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ON A
FEW OF THE LOCAL CAMERAS. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE ABOUNDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WE'VE MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE SLOWER DEPARTURE
OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW TRAPPED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND ON COURSE. WE'LL
ADDRESS POTENTIAL ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER COMPILING
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
SATELLITE DEPICTS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH RADAR AND WEBCAMS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING AT THIS
TIME. SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WILL END THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS COLORADO TODAY USHERING IN WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW WILL BE A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT. NOT WELL DEFINED AT THE SURFACE,
BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE 4-6C BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS THE
700MB WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE A GOOD SWATCH OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEN DRYING
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORING THEM MORE THEN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT COUNTY. FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRY SO MOST AND PERHAPS ALL PRECIPITATION
WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE THE DRY LAYER
WILL NOT BE AS DEEP. LIGHT RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR FROM DENVER NORTHWARD. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
LAS VEGAS AREA TO NORTHWEST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO, LIKELY
NOT TOO FAR FROM DENVER. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW, THERE WILL BE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. THESE AREAS WILL
HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 F. FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER, EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S. BY THE AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9 C/KM. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN AS
THEY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INCREASE COVERAGE OF
THE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HAVE
LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE ROUGHLY 2-8" FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE
INTO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MODELS AND WILL PROVIDE COLORADO
WITH MUCH LESS QG FORCING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
FORMING IN THE LOW LEVELS, SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STICK TO THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AND TRAVEL MAY
BE IMPACTED ON THE I-70 MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR. BOULDER AND GOLDEN AND
OTHER WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME.
THERE WAS CONSIDERATION FOR HIGHLIGHTS COVERING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT NONE WERE ISSUED SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH THE
WARNING CRITERIA AND THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY JUST YET. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL BE PLACED DIRECTLY OVER COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS WILL GO FROM AROUND 50 ON
SATURDAY TO THE LOW 60S ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. THE RECORD
HIGH AT KDEN FOR MONDAY IS 79 F SO THAT SEEMS TO BE SAFE BUT IT
DOESN'T TAKE AWAY FROM THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH NEARS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN GUSTY WINDS, IT IS POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER MAY BE
A CONCERN ON THE PLAINS. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT ANY
DETAILS YET. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE, BUT STILL A 30% CHANCE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. THOSE WINDS WILL TRANSITION MORE
SOUTHERLY BY 02Z-03Z AND HOLD THROUGH ABOUT 10Z-12Z, BEFORE AN
EXPECTED SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK CYCLONE. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
7000-9000 FT AGL AS THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
SHOWERS WILL STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
COLORADO BORDER AREA, WITH JUST A 20% CHANCE OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY AT THE AIRPORT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH HIGHER SHOWER
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH, THE DEVELOPING WEAK CYCLONE DOES HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY FOR A 30% CHANCE
OF BKN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS 11Z-17Z. CONFIDENCE WAS STILL LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE THAT, BUT WE DID ADD A SCT008 DECK TO CONVEY THAT
THREAT FOR NOW.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANIELSON
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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