367
FXUS65 KBOU 061055
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
355 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND SNOW RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- MUCH MILDER WITH DRY WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY AND PEAKING
MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS MAY BREAK 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO IS PRODUCING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 6000 FEET MSL. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF I-25. THIS AREA
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SUNRISE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A CYCLONE
WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY.
THE DRYING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH
BRINGS SNOW BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVES
TRAVELS EASTWARD, SNOW WITH RAIN BELOW 6000-6500 FEET MSL WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FALLING NORTH OF I-70. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, BY
THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
ON FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE QG FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHICH
MAY HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 ACROSS OUR CWA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING, A CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FAR AWAY TO
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QG FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND I-70
CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FORM AS A RESULT. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. 2-5" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTH
PARK. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE ADJACENT PLAINS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS LIKE
ROXBOROUGH PARK. THE MAJORITY OF THE DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR
OR NONE AT ALL.
THE CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BY LATE
SATURDAY AS RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE AXIS OF THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL BE
OVER COLORADO PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO OUR FORECAST AREA. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM 2 C ON SUNDAY TO 7 C ON MONDAY AND
HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE
LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS COLORADO. RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THIS TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST FORCING STAYING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO OR NEW MEXICO.
WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT HAS A CHANCE TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA IS NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 14TH AND 15TH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS
OF 9000-12000 FEET. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE A CYCLONE FORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST 11-12Z. SOMETIMES THESE WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG AS THE NAM IS SHOWING. NOT SURE IF WE HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN, BUT CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
TEMPO 12-15Z FOR 2SM AND BKN010 AT DEN AND BJC.
WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATE EVENING 03-04Z WE EXPECT TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS BECOME WIDESPREAD AT 1000 TO 2000 FEET. THESE LOW CLOUDS
THEN PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANIELSON
AVIATION...MEIER
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